Why Is The Current American Government Shutdown Different (and More Intractable)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature in American political life – however this one feels particularly intractable due to shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock continue to fall short, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance because both parties – as well as the President – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are the four ways in which things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters has been demanding for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders has a chance to demonstrate they have listened.
Earlier this year, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to show they can take back some control from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk as citizens generally will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support and GOP-backed government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
Additionally, they're attempting to restrict executive utilization of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, which he has done in international assistance and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to make more of reductions in government employment that have featured in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to cut "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved late-night talks among political opponents in an effort to get government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Conversely, animosity prevails. The bad blood continued over the weekend, as both sides blaming each other for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out during discussions "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Analysts expect about 40% of the federal workforce – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability into an economy already being roiled by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity following resolution, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, analysts say that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become extended in duration.